An invention at a major academic institution has the potential to be useful in screening and profiling patients with a variety of conditions. The goal is to identify both the potential use, and the unmet needs in a number of managed care settings, in order to determine the inventions value and the likely clinical developments required. As a direct result of the development of a clear and thorough understanding of the various applications of this technology, and the availability of a robust market evaluation, the final output should enable the University to submit grant applications to fund proof-of-principle studies, as well as enter negotiations with potential investors and partners. The output is also required to support further enquiry into various deal structures on the part of the University in order to evaluate optimal exit points to both maximise profit and minimise risk exposure.
Traditional methods for valuing healthcare products typically use ‘static’ patient or volume-based models. However, these tend to work best when there is an existing market accompanied by limited seasonal variation. For novel, game-changing technologies, in highly divergent patient populations, a different approach is required.
A solution was developed based on clinical pathology patient profiles. This resulted in the identification and segmentation of the patient population into two distinct groups according to unmet clinical need and the managed care setting. Furthermore, a sub-division of one of these groups allowed the inclusion of three different product intervention points and the ability to demonstrate substantial cost-benefit improvement to healthcare providers. Value was added by estimating the rate of adoption of the new technology through the application of Everett Rogers’ diffusion of innovation theory. This enabled the impact and sensitivity of key customer groups, on both net present value and key financial metrics, to be visualised.
Results & Feedback
Within an eight week time-frame, Black Swan Analysis was able to deliver a valuation of the opportunities within the relevant medical field. Accompanying this was a fully documented business plan that considered potential clinical development costs; timings and likely end-points required for reimbursement and pricing; and likely regulatory timings and hurdles. The client was particularly pleased with the early asset health economic valuation, as this helped guide their potential pricing strategy in order to optimise market access and uptake in this undeveloped market area. The client is currently planning to adopt a similar valuation approach to several other new technologies.