A global biopharmaceutical company is seeking to standardise the forecasting approach used in their core European markets. There is currently no consistent format, structure or coverage across the different markets, with disparity between the level of expertise and resources available to generate forecasts. The company’s aim is to provide a standardised approach and forecasting tool to ensure robustness and consistency across their markets. The outcomes of this standardised approach will contribute to the company’s overall European commercial strategy.
Data availability and analysis across the markets differs substantially. Challenges lie around the necessity to incorporate the data available for each market; the existing forecasts and methodologies currently in place in each market; build on current best practice; and establish a revised forecasting tool that can be adopted on a pan-European scale. The final tool needs to be easy to use, able to be calibrated with local data and capture key marketing initiatives.
To provide senior management with a reporting tool to track product sales and to provide local management with a robust means to support and develop their launch strategies. A detailed dynamic patient switch model was used to capture the complexities around patient management; treatment failures; lines of therapy; and prior exposure to different agents. Also, accompanying training needed to be a major component of the project deliverable to ensure a thorough understanding of the new forecasting methodology and full adoption of the new tool in local planning and reporting.
Results & Feedback
The implementation of this standardisation procedure deepened the company’s understanding of the market dynamics during new product launch phases. It helped them to develop realistic market share objectives and further increased their accuracy and consistency in forecasting. Furthermore, time and associated costs were saved through the reduced need for model auditing, maintenance and consolidation of forecast outputs from disparate models across the markets. An unparalleled level of transparency across the EU region was created, delivering significant benefit in terms of reporting to senior management and city analysts. The overall process and system was developed for the company over the course of approximately 12 weeks.