A small biotech firm with a novel chewable technology was looking to assess the global market for their technology. An understanding and quantification of both over-the-counter (OTC) and prescription-only medicine (POM) markets was required in a number of key global regions. Furthermore, the contribution of different formulation types to the markets was a necessary component of the evaluation. The client was ultimately looking for an assessment of the market to inform upcoming strategic decisions, and to potentially facilitate future investment options.
The dynamics and influences within the OTC and the POM markets are quite distinct. Typically, OTC products are very consumer-driven and operate through a large number of supply channels. In contrast the POM marketplace contains an extremely broad range of products with different levels of endorsement across the different clinical specialities. In order to establish the size of both these markets in terms of value, volume and the contribution of different modes of delivery, detailed information such as dose sizing and new form code classification is required. Additionally, the lack of complementarity between the different data sets for the different markets will pose difficulties when trying to establish overall values and volumes of the different formulation categories. While the market evaluation will focus on the USA and top five European markets, the rest of Europe and the World also contain significant opportunities and are therefore also important to quantify. Data quality in certain global regions is variable and so during the analysis appropriate and realistic assumptions must be used.
To evaluate global use, the market was first split into two main components: the POM market and the OTC market. While value of the overall OTC and POM markets was relatively straight forward to assess, to calculate market volume in anything other than standard units required a significant degree of detail about each product in the market. We took a ‘bottom-up’ approach to determine the size of the market opportunity at an aggregate regional level for the USA, Europe and the rest of the world, in terms of a potential end tonnage of active ingredient. To identify further opportunity for the innovative technology, analysis was performed on both POM and OTC markets considered them as contributing to either a traditional “tablet and capsule” market or less traditional “liquid and suspension” market. The analysis then delved deeper within the less traditional market to establish the broad range of formulation types and dose sizes available, considering the contribution that these different products make to the market as well capturing current trends.
Results & Feedback
Over approximately two months, Black Swan Analysis delivered the most complete global analysis of this substantial market in pain relief to date. Global values were broken down to both a country and a formulation level. The outputs provided our client with clear guidance on the potential value of different segments of the market, as well as the opportunities available in different countries around the world. With the outputs and details exposed during the analysis the client is currently engaged in discussions concerning manufacturing, product launch and licensing opportunities.