On November 22, 2017, Tags Case Studies


A global biopharmaceutical company is currently seeking approval to launch a new drug in several Asian countries for the treatment of a chronic, and endemic, infectious disease. Many of these markets have helped contain and reduce the spread of the disease though universal vaccination programmes implemented since the 1980s. However, this company is keen to understand the potential opportunity for their drug in these markets, and to gain insight into the key issues and potential barriers to entry in order to unlock full market revenue potential.


The success of various vaccination programmes on the prevalent population is currently unknown, but is expected to have a significant impact on the size of the population available for treatment. In addition, data availability across these markets differs enormously. The company required a comprehensive and comparable analysis of each market in terms of patients, treatment trends, market shares and payer status. Complexity was added to the analysis with the anticipated loss of patent protection of several brand leaders during the launch period of the new drug. The company needs to understand the impact of these events and their implications for the launch of its drug.

Big Idea

While some epidemiology data was available, it was neither comprehensive nor directly comparable across territories. An innovative approach was taken, modelling the disease according to “epiomic” factors, from which it was possible to piece together a working model of the primary disease, including the impact of various public health vaccination programmes. Other aspects driving the market model included market-switch dynamics; anti-viral treatment rates and their trends within each territory; and local pricing strategies which incorporated both the ability to pay and the genericisation taking place in the market at time of launch.

Results & Feedback

Within a four week time-frame, Black Swan Analysis was able to deliver the core model and its outputs to senior managers, enabling them to explore these new markets. Through a greater understanding of vaccination coverage rates and their impact on the eligible treatment population; the impact of the patent expiries; pricing and market access factors; as well as the potential requirement of sales force and their downstream impact on revenue, the client was able to optimise their launch strategy.

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